Pressure has been rife because the Indian authorities handed ‘The Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act 2019’, which downgraded the prior semi-autonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh into two centrally ruled Union Territories. The transfer stemmed from the long-standing ideological place of the proponents of Hindutva (a nationalist ideology of turning India into Hindu nation) of which the BJP is a political face. Jammu and Kashmir being the one Muslim-majority area in in any other case Hindu dominated India was thought-about a roadblock within the Hindutva undertaking. Earlier than 2019, Article 370 of India’s structure had given Jammu and Kashmir its semi-autonomous character. The Hindu Proper wing held that Article 370 was a provision to interrupt Kashmir from India and considered Muslim-dominated politics in Jammu and Kashmir as detrimental to nationwide pursuits. Therefore, a studying down of Articles 370 and 35A opened the doorways for subsequent levels of political engineering.

Now with the report of the Delimitation Commission giving extra seats to Jammu than Kashmir, regardless of the latter being extra populous, there seems a clear-headed try in the direction of the progressive accomplishment of the right-wing undertaking of marginalising the bulk. Following the Reorganization Act, the central grip on Jammu and Kashmir has cemented with the extension of quite a few legislative and govt measures. Nonetheless, these measures could show transitory as soon as statehood is restored, as has been promised by federal House Minister on the ground of central legislature. To avoid the anticipated state of affairs, the central authorities constituted the ‘Delimitation Fee’ underneath provisions of Half V of The Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act, 2019,  tasked with the redrawing of electoral constituencies, for Jammu And Kashmir solely, opposite to the norm of constituting the fee for the entire of nation or group of its constituents. The debates surrounding the delimitation course of assumed significance within the context of present demographic composition and distribution of electoral constituencies in Jammu And Kashmir.

The UT of Jammu and Kashmir, because it exists as we speak, consists of two distinct areas: Jammu (a Hindu dominated) and Kashmir (Muslim dominated) with 37 electoral constituencies for the previous and 46 for the latter giving Kashmir-based political events edge over the formation of presidency in first-past-the-post system. The truth that within the post-partition historical past of Jammu and Kashmir all Prime and Chief Ministers have been Muslim, primarily from Kashmir area attests to the above assertion. This has generated resentment and notion of discrimination within the Hindu dominated Jammu area.

The current delimitation train was extensively seen as an try to disturb the present stability of the distribution of electoral seats, thereby, undercutting the Kashmir’s affect over the politics of Jammu and Kashmir. The Folks’s Democratic Celebration (PDP), a Kashmir-based occasion who final time shaped authorities in Jammu and Kashmir in alliance with the BJP has boycotted the fee for its partisan character and predictable final result. The final delimitation train held in 1994–95 after the 1981 census added 11 seats with Jammu getting one seat extra (from 32 to 37) than Kashmir (from 42 to 46). The Hindu nationalists decry the earlier delimitation commissions for being biased in opposition to Jammu and their Kashmir-centric method.

The Reorganization Act stipulates the creation of seven extra electoral seats in Jammu and Kashmir and delimitation fee is holding consultations and negotiations with related stakeholders within the UT for the aim. The BJP who has its bastion situated in Jammu discovered this a great window of alternative to get a greater deal for Jammu – an necessary step within the realization of dream of getting a Hindu Chief Minister for Jammu and Kashmir. The modus operandi, in fashionable opinion, could be to bestow extra seats to BJP-dominated Jammu and tie up with any Kashmir based mostly political occasion in authorities formation the place BJP could be a serious companion. This appeared life like after Delimitation Fee mentioned that their remaining report will bear in mind the components equivalent to topography, troublesome terrain, technique of communication and comfort out there whereas delimiting seven extra seats for the 83-member Meeting, in addition to granting reservation to Schedule Tribe (ST) and Schedule Caste (ST) communities.

Whereas granting reservation to SC’s and ST’s is a norm and offered for within the structure of India, the newly concentrate on above talked about components, undeserving of consideration in earlier Commissions, appeared to present credence to allegations of Fee’s goal being disempowering of Kashmiris and Kashmir-based political events. The elemental criterion, in accordance with articles 81 and 170 of structure of India, for redrawing the boundaries of electoral constituencies needs to be a ‘inhabitants’ as ascertained within the final previous census.

Topographically, Jammu is extra advanced than Kashmir. Moreover, the precept of constituting a Delimitation Fee after each census held after each decade itself is reflective of the importance of inhabitants as the elemental criterion in redrawing electoral constituencies. The Delimitation Fee’s weight on among the hitherto secondary components was understood to deliberately liquidate the significance of the inhabitants issue, the one criterion the place Kashmir might need received a bonus.

Relatedly, one of many goals of getting a Hindu Chief Minister, which the current train was allegedly geared in the direction of, was to acquire a stamp of fashionable legitimacy on all central legislative and govt measures taken to this point in Jammu and Kashmir. This assumes significance on condition that there are petitions within the Supreme Courtroom of India difficult the Centre’s unilateral resolution of stripping Jammu and Kashmir of its semi-autonomous character. Furthermore, growing Jammu’s electoral heft would guarantee a shift of centre in political gravity from Kashmir to Jammu which is extensively considered in federal corridors of energy as extra conducive to Indian pursuits than Kashmir-based politics.

The apprehensions harboured by the folks of Jammu and Kashmir concerning the Delimitation Fee got here true when the fee made the report public on December 20 2021, which proposed six extra seats for Jammu and just one for Kashmir. The Kashmir-based events have rejected the report as divisive. Their argument is according to Articles 81 and 170 which make inhabitants the defining criterion for delimiting new constituencies. The brand new association, if carried out, will take Jammu’s tally of seats to 43 and that of Kashmir’s to 47 – giving an edge to Jammu-based events, amongst which the BJP is at present in a dominant place, in any future authorities formation. This can allow BJP to type a authorities within the state with the help of any handy occasion.

The 2 generally used practices for gerrymandering are ‘cracking’ and ‘packing’. Cracking splits the opposition occasion’s vote base amongst a number of constituencies whereas packing does the other – concentrating opposing occasion’s vote base in a single district to allow the governing occasion to win surrounding districts. With sixteen seats reserved for Schedule Tribe (ST) and Schedule Caste (ST) communities within the proposed draft, it leaves little wiggle room to determine how new constituencies might be carved out following the logic of packing and cracking. Nonetheless, if historical past is something to go by, it warns us that in any democratic set-up, crafting coverage which serves to generate the notion of exclusion in a majority could, at finest, yield transitory dividends – however grow to be counter-productive within the long-run. The political historical past of Kashmir, specifically, affords insights on this course.

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